Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1194.672127 1380.780582 1596.571729 1867.749077 2202.946575 2608.402291 3.143261e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 918.871894 1156.307567 1465.639937 1908.999228 2547.144997 3464.657956 4.949154e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 774.319059 1022.979089 1369.837490 1908.935471 2765.806613 4155.215530 6.778287e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 663.635485 908.073268 1266.558033 1859.009290 2877.261800 4701.041618 8.647116e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 599.095010 845.648997 1223.868794 1885.354648 3110.267589 5532.702857 1.158970e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 530.904894 766.476520 1139.958508 1821.488007 3158.256388 6020.610830 1.411567e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 478.872930 705.145778 1074.493452 1774.745926 3223.100275 6568.713738 1.728104e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 434.916241 651.280489 1013.400269 1723.234941 3262.551719 7075.256938 2.084753e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 418.619189 640.807273 1025.140796 1812.998694 3636.344580 8624.979997 3.028108e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 399.441076 622.985961 1020.764712 1868.728163 3949.250249 10197.224068 4.288664e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 383.381885 608.669215 1020.582717 1932.879366 4306.107575 12160.437265 6.298204e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 360.534301 579.842046 988.871436 1920.866086 4455.515996 13512.189275 8.385227e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 342.366651 559.921669 976.341195 1961.519592 4807.023168 16133.764388 1.330478e+05
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 326.165849 542.576476 967.950980 2014.500400 5238.332836 19726.925378 2.356353e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 307.252116 517.890901 940.586494 2013.321420 5495.372694 22851.125883 3.955240e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 286.290273 487.226495 896.637423 1959.919521 5551.100690 24975.012453 6.069102e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 273.648267 471.762896 883.798280 1988.150709 5930.225759 29942.818266 1.316549e+06
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 255.463041 443.611174 839.471817 1919.690141 5901.478701 31963.361492 2.176415e+06
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 240.241794 420.298256 803.688329 1869.617597 5934.321354 34708.251126 4.199821e+06
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 226.071575 398.091559 768.230360 1814.470025 5927.315535 37233.790639 8.763114e+06
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 222.271006 397.034013 781.878209 1910.593658 6666.552368 49770.258998 1.938153e+08
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 216.463310 391.229588 783.521810 1970.324555 7280.008646 63857.147214 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 211.411713 386.602879 787.478756 2039.130825 8000.857895 84188.013022 NaN